These 8 data indicators show: Is not the culmination of the bull market yet?
Two days ago, many people watched the DeFi concept coins and altcoins and felt that the Bitcoin and Ethereum they were holding in their hands suddenly disappeared. The more they looked at them, they became angrier and angrier, and even wanted to short them.
As a result, it took only two days for Ethereum to break through a new high, and Bitcoin stood on the bull and bear line of $35,000 in the eyes of the technicalities.
What is the current stage of Bitcoin and Ethereum? Should you continue to sprint, or should you rush higher and lower? We have compiled some interesting data, you can judge for yourself.
1. The number of new addresses on the chain
In general, the new users of Bitcoin and Ethereum are increasing rapidly.
The number of new addresses added daily in Bitcoin is relatively stable, and the current data has not reached the level of 2017. Ethereum is completely different. In 2020, it has hit historical highs many times, but it has fluctuated greatly, and recent data has begun to fall. This may be due to the vigorous development of DeFi, and the Ethereum network appears to be more capable of “accommodating new”.
But two indicators are interesting to look at.
First, the number of new users of Ethereum began to fall after December 2020, which may indicate that DeFi’s “new acquisition” capabilities are decreasing.
Second, looking at the absolute numbers, the number of daily new users of Bitcoin is more than 500,000, and the peak of Ethereum does not exceed 450,000, with an average of less than 200,000. This may indicate that Bitcoin’s “mass base” is still greater than that of Ethereum.
2. On-chain transaction fees
In terms of fees, Bitcoin is far from reaching 2017 high, while Ethereum has far exceeded the 2017 historical high.
Obviously, Ethereum’s high transaction fees benefit from DeFi. But why is Bitcoin not growing well? Perhaps it is because USDT-OMNI was the main trading medium before and investors used it to transfer assets, but today everyone is using ERC20 or TRC20 USDT, or even DAI, a native stable currency on the chain, and the Bitcoin network. The degree of use has naturally decreased.
Of course, some people said that Fomo’s climax has not yet come.
3. Exchange holdings
These two data are the most talked about “indicators” in this round of bull market. The red line is the exchange’s BTC and ETH holdings, and the black line is the asset price. Starting around August 2020, the exchange’s Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings have been on a downward trend.
In fact, by observing the two curves, it can be found that Bitcoin exchange holdings are gradually decreasing. Ethereum began to explode in August, which is obviously related to the wave of DeFi mining, investors withdraw ETH for liquidity mining.
In any case, the exchange holdings continue to decrease, we can still infer that market participants tend to buy bitcoins and hold bitcoins instead of selling or selling on a large scale. Therefore, the corresponding market price may still not peak.
Also, this may herald the advent of the DEX era and the departure of the CEX era.
4. The proportion of exchange whales
The so-called whale ratio of BTC exchanges refers to the relative size of the inflows of the top 10 users on all exchanges to the total inflows. We only found data on BTC.
When Bitcoin was $20,000, the whales sold the most violently. When Bitcoin exceeded $20,000, the whales’ shipments immediately dropped and returned to normal levels, even significantly lower than the 312 plunge period.
This may also be understood as, in the long run, whales may have higher expectations for the future price of Bitcoin. In any case, whales are the real “helms” of market prices. And historical data also shows that whales often complete their escape at high points. When the data is rapidly increasing, be careful.
5. Miners’ smash index
This data is also very popular recently because the data shows that the Bitcoin shipments of Yuchi are extremely high. After 40,000 knives on the Bitcoin site, miners’ sales soared.
Is this an important reason for the subsequent correction of Bitcoin prices? At least the data shows a great correlation. But on the other hand, it may also be a decrease in paying orders, as shown in the following data.
6. Bitcoin premium index
This data can be said to be the core indicator of this bull market. It refers to the price difference between Coinbase and exchanges such as Binance. Recently, the premium data crossed the zero axes again, and Bitcoin “coincidentally” bottomed out.
This data may prove that the spot buying orders for BTC came mainly from the United States. At least from the above chart, it can be seen that the indicator of premium has a certain guiding significance for the market.
So, did the miners hit the market or did US investors (mainly institutions) reduce their purchasing power?
7. Total market value of USDT
The above three figures are the total market value of the three types of USDT. It can be seen that since 2020, except for the decline in the USDT on the Bitcoin network Omni, the other two types have been greatly increased.
In fact, data shows that, including DAI, PAX, USDC, etc., the increase in the market value of stablecoins is visible to the naked eye. And this may be the engine of the bull market? The slowdown in growth may be a turning point in the market.
8. CME holdings
The last date is the exchange’s futures trading volume and open interest. Pay attention to CME. Its trading volume ranks not high, but its open interest ranks in the top three. The reason for this is that CME is considered to be the main battlefield for institutional players. , While institutional investors tend to have low transaction frequency and long positions.
CME, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, is the largest compliant bitcoin futures trading platform in the United States, and it supports US dollar cash delivery. Its bitcoin futures products have had a very large impact on bitcoin prices. CME price gap covering, which traders are generally concerned about, is positive proof.
Recently, the so-called U.S. stock retail investors’ crit short-selling institutions have intensified, and some people in the crypto community have called for fan-cuisine hedge funds to have a $1 billion BTC short position in CME, which is quite interesting.
It is worth mentioning that on February 8, 2021, CME will soon list ETH futures. So, is this the reason behind Ethereum’s new record high?
The above eight data indicators have both fundamentals and transaction levels. From the historical data, they have a strong indication of the price of cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, in a longer time dimension. You can pay more attention.
Here, we did not list the very famous greed index. This is because as far as this bull market is concerned, the meaning of the greed index seems to be limited. It has been at a high level since Bitcoin broke through $20,000, but we see that Bitcoin There is no decent callback.
However, indicators can only represent the past and trends. They cannot predict the future. Short-term price fluctuations caused by black swan events such as favourable policies and negative events cannot be effectively captured.