Shigekura Musk and Bitcoin’s Bull Queen: Ten Tech Trends in 2021
She, Catherine Wood, was named the “Bull Queen” because of consecutive bets on Tesla, Zoom, and Bitcoin.
In the past year, the scale of her flagship product ARK asset management has soared by 11 times, becoming a phenomenon-level ETF.
Therefore, her optimistic field has become an important investment vane. Even the insight into technology trends eclipses even the Queen of the Internet, Mary Meeker.
And now, in its latest 2021 technology trend. It lists dozens of opportunity fields involving deep learning, Bitcoin, electric vehicles, aerospace, biomedicine, etc.
Conclusions are optimistic about AI, optimistic about new energy, optimistic about video games and mobile payment… and not optimistic about Intel.
For specific details, let’s look at them one by one.
Trend 1: ARM server revenue grows 100 times
Start with a crit on Intel.
Wood believes that ARM, RISC-V and GPU will become mainstream processors, and the Intel era will end.
Take ARM and x86 as examples. First in terms of market share.
In 2020, the market share of ARM processors is only 0.1%, but by 2030, ARM processors will directly jump to 82%.
At present, PCs such as Apple and Microsoft are stepping up their efforts to support ARM processors.
Then on revenue.
In 2030, ARM server revenue may increase 100 times. From less than 1 billion U.S. dollars in 2020 to 100 billion U.S. dollars in 2030, the revenue level is higher than the current x86.
RISC-V and ARM data centre CPU revenues will expand to US$19 billion in 2030 at a compound annual growth rate of 45%.
Trend 2: AI chip spending will increase 4 times
Deep learning was the first technical field that Wood picked up.
As the cornerstone of technologies such as speaker interactive products, autonomous driving, and consumer apps, Wood believes that it creates much more value than the Internet back then.
In the next 15-20 years, the field of deep learning will increase the market value of the global stock market by 30 trillion US dollars.
Specifically, AI chips will usher in a boom, and its spending will increase more than four times, from the current 5 billion US dollars to 22 billion US dollars in 2025.
One of the factors affecting the chip boom is the sharp increase in the training cost of AI models. Wood believes that the training cost of AI models in the future will increase 100 times based on GPT-3, reaching a scale of 100 million yuan.
Trend 3: Still optimistic about Tesla, but also optimistic about China’s new energy
She who is heavily in charge of Tesla will still pick electric cars in the new year.
Even during the epidemic, the sales of fuel vehicles continued to decline, but electric vehicles continued to grow globally, with an increase of 30% in 2020.
Wood predicts that the sales of electric vehicles will increase significantly from 2.2 million in 2020 by about 20 times and reach 40 million in 2025.
In terms of the selling price, the price of electric vehicles will be close to that of fuel vehicles, and the new battery design will quickly reduce vehicle manufacturing costs.
However, the biggest risk of this prediction is that traditional car manufacturers can successfully transition to electric and self-driving cars. (Manual dog head)
Trend 4: Optimistic about Autonomous Driving Robotaxi
“Unmanned taxis will dominate urban traffic.” Wood believes that driverless taxi services will further reduce travel costs and be widely used.
The current global taxi market generates approximately $150 billion in revenue. But by 2030, self-driving taxi platforms will generate more than $1 trillion in profits each year.
Besides, automakers and fleet owners will earn US$250 billion and US$70 billion in profits, respectively.
And if Tesla successfully launches self-driving ride-hailing services in 2022, ARK estimates that the adoption rate may be close to 20% by 2025.
Trend 5: There will be 130,000 yuan in the per capita e-wallet in the future
Electronic wallets have become a global trend because of their low cost and convenience.
Judging from the amount of mobile payment in China, it has exploded more than 15 times in just 5 years. From about US$2 trillion in 2015 to US$36 trillion in 2020, it is almost three times the GDP.
According to ARK analysis, there are currently between US$250 and US$1,900 in each user’s electronic wallet.
By 2025, this figure will expand to US$20,000 per user, equivalent to RMB 130,000; users will reach 230 million.
Trend 6: UAVs deliver 20% of goods
The epidemic has accelerated this new delivery method of non-contact drone delivery.
In terms of food delivery alone, global online food delivery sales will increase by more than 40% in 2020.
According to ARK’s research, drone delivery will account for nearly half of about 40% of the food prepared and delivered to the home.
Wood predicts that at some point in the next five years, drones will transport more than 20% of packaged goods.
By 2030, drone delivery platforms will bring about US$275 billion in cargo distribution revenue, US$50 billion in hardware sales revenue, and US$12 billion in mapping business revenue.
Trend 7: Bitcoin price will rise by about $40,000
Judging from the search volume over the years, Bitcoin’s previous wave of price increases is not too much driven by hype. In the past period of time, Bitcoin seems to have gained more trust, and its price has hit a record high.
Wood predicts that the S&P 500 component companies spend 1% of their cash in Bitcoin, and the price of Bitcoin will increase by about $40,000.
Besides, they also found that Bitcoin market participants are very concerned about the long-term trend of Bitcoin. As of November 2020, approximately 60% of the Bitcoin supply has not changed in more than a year.
In the next five to ten years, its assets may increase from approximately US$500 billion to US$1-5 trillion.
Trend 8: The aerospace industry will create $270 billion annually
Musk’s “eight-hand” rocket is subverting the entire aerospace industry.
Thanks to advances in deep learning, sensors, 3D printing and robotics, the aerospace industry have finally shown a downward trend in costs for decades.
This has led to a surge in the number of satellite launches and rocket landings, and it is expected that 25,000+ satellites will be launched in the future.
In the future, the aerospace industry will create more than $270 billion in value every year.
Trend 9: Playing video games will cost 20% more money per hour
Currently, the virtual world is still in its infancy. According to ARK research, the industry revenue of the virtual world will grow by 17% every year, from about 180 billion US dollars now to 390 billion US dollars in 2025.
But specifically to video games.
In the past 10 years, the proportion of in-game purchases in total game revenue has risen from 20% to 75%. By 2025, this proportion will reach 95%.
And the hourly cost of playing video games may increase by 20% in the next five years.
ARK research believes that the global game market will grow at a compound annual rate of 16% within 5 years, from US$175 billion in 2020 to US$365 billion in 2025.
Besides, the AR and VR market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 59% in the next five years, from US$3 billion to US$28 billion in five years.
Trend 10: Cellular immunotherapy market scale increases 3 times
Wood believes that cell and gene therapy are currently in their early stages.
The second generation of cell and gene therapy will transform from the following three aspects: liquid to a solid tumour, homologous autologous to allogeneic cell therapy, and in vitro to in vivo gene editing.
Innovations in cellular immunotherapy, including TILs, TCRs and CAR-T cell therapies, can increase the market by nearly three times, adding $30 billion to the current $13 billion therapeutic markets.
The next generation of cell and gene therapy innovations will increase the potential market size of tumour treatment by 20 times.
Besides, Katherine Wood is also optimistic about 3D printing, length sequencing, and multiple cancer screening.